Changchun High-tech (000661): The gradual advancement of the restructuring plan beyond market expectations usher in a double-click by Davis
Event: The company released a formal 北京夜网 reorganization plan, intending to issue shares and convertible bonds to Jin Lei and Lin Dianhai to purchase the Jinsai Pharmaceuticals it holds.5% equity.The overall evaluation of Jinsai Pharmaceutical is estimated at 19.1 billion, corresponding to 2018 performance11.3 billion is less than 16.9 times.Kinsey Pharmaceutical 29.5% equity consideration 56.3.7 billion, of which 51 were paid for shares issued.8.7 billion (corresponding to 2986.230,000 shares, unlocked in three years), and then pay Jin Lei convertible bonds4.500 million (corresponding to conversion of 259.10,000 shares, unlocked in three years), the price of shares issued and convertible bonds was adjusted to 173.69 yuan / share, and the matching raised capital does not exceed 1 billion US dollars. After the reorganization (before the conversion), Jin Lei will hold the company11.65% of the shares will be held after the conversion.78% stake.Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s performance commitment is not less than 15 in 2019-2021.58/19.48/23.2 trillion, the annual growth rate is 38% / 25% / 19%. The restructuring plan exceeded market expectations, which is beneficial to the merger of shareholders of listed companies.We believe that the formal restructuring plan exceeds market expectations, mainly due to: 1) The overall market expectation of Jinsai Pharmaceutical is estimated to be about 20 times, and the actual estimate is less than 17 times. Diluted share capital is reduced, and the restructuring plan is beneficial to long-term shareholders; 2)Jin Lei promises to maintain a 7% gap between the direct shareholding ratio and the state-owned controlling shareholder. If the share is completely converted, the distance between Jin Lei and the state-owned assets is 6%, that is, some convertible bonds cannot be directly converted into shares, and can only be held or transferred; 3) Jin SaiThe pharmaceutical industry’s performance commitment is high, significantly higher than the estimated level of less than 18 times in 2018, exceeding market expectations.On the whole, we believe that the corporate governance structure will be further improved after the reorganization. Jin Lei ‘s holding of equity in listed companies will be directly linked to the growth of Jinsai Pharmaceutical. It is expected that the company’s net profit margin will gradually increase in the future, that is, when revenue continuesUnder high growth, net profit will also be high growth, the company merger or ushering in a double-click Davis. At present, the cost is still estimated, and the company is optimistic about the long-term value-added development of the company.Without considering the matching raised funds, the company’s share capital will increase to 58.5 billion (before the conversion) and 593 percent (after the conversion). The pro forma performance in 2019 is 18-19 trillion, which is estimated to be about 32 times. The pro forma performance in 202024-25 billion, estimated to be about 24 times. At present, it is expected to have higher value. At the same time, considering that the company’s growth hormone is still continuing to grow at a high speed, the future 杭州夜网论坛 performance is likely to exceed the performance commitment. Profit forecast and rating.Regarding asset restructuring for the time being, we expect EPS to be 8 in 2019-2021.10 yuan, 10.92 yuan and 14.72 yuan, corresponding to the current expected estimates are 36 times, 27 times and 20 times.Considering the high growth of the company’s performance, it is estimated to be relatively cheap, and maintain a “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: the risk of major asset restructuring failure due to unpredictable factors; the risk of unfulfilled performance commitments and insufficient performance compensation; the risk of new products or incapable volume; the risk of price reductions in pharmaceutical tenders.